|
At the beginning of the year, GSA tracked semiconductor sales forecasts from industry analysts to provide an early snapshot of how analysts predict the market will finish in 2008. We will periodically update the table (as companies revise their forecasts), tracking the percentage-point revisions throughout the year.
Company |
2008 Forecasted Growth |
As
of
Date |
Revised 2008 Forecast |
Increased/ Reduced |
As
of
Date |
2009 Forecasted Growth |
As
of
Date |
| Cowan LRA Model |
6.8% |
Feb 2008 |
4.9%
4.4% |
Reduced
Reduced |
August 2008
September 2008 |
|
|
| Databeans |
8.7% |
Jan 2008 |
7.0% |
Reduced |
June 2008 |
|
|
| Future Horizons |
10.0% |
Jan 2008 |
10.0%
4.0-5.0%
2.2%
|
-
Reduced
Reduced
|
July 2008
October 2008
November 2008 |
-2.0% |
November 2008 |
| Gartner Dataquest |
6.2% |
Jan 2008 |
4.6%
4.2% |
Decreased
Decreased |
August 2008
September 2008 |
-2.0% to 1.0% |
November 2008 |
| IC Insights |
10.0% |
Jan 2008 |
4.0% |
Reduced |
September 2008 |
~3.2% |
November 2008 |
| IDC |
6.0% |
Dec 2007 |
4.0% |
Reduced |
June 2008 |
|
|
| In-Stat |
2.4% |
Feb 2008 |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
| Inside Chips |
-8.0% |
Dec 2007 |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
| International Business Strategies |
4.0% |
Dec 2007 |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
| iSuppli |
7.5% |
Dec 2007 |
4.0%
3.5%
-2.0% |
Reduced
Reduced
Reduced |
April 2008
October 2008
November 2008 |
|
|
| Semico |
12.0% |
Jan 2008 |
8.0% |
Reduced |
June 2008 |
|
|
| SIA |
7.7% |
Nov 2007 |
4.3%
2.2% |
Reduced
Reduced |
June 2008
November 2008 |
-5.6% |
November 2008 |
| VLSI Research |
7.5% |
Jan 2008 |
7.0%
-1.7% |
Reduced
Reduced |
February 2008
November 2008 |
-6.9% |
November 2008 |
| WSTS |
9.1% |
Nov 2007 |
4.7%
2.5%
|
Reduced
Reduced |
May 2008
November 2008 |
-2.2% |
November 2008 |
| Carnegie Research ASA |
3.0% |
January 2008 |
6.0% |
Increased |
September 2008 |
|
|
| Merrill Lynch |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
-10.0% |
November 2008 |
| Wachovia Capital Markets |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
-5.0%
to -15.0% |
November 2008 |
| Advanced Forecasting |
-2.0%
(+/-2%) |
Dec 2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
Note: TSMC reported a 5-10% semiconductor growth forecast each year for the next 10 years, as a prediction to the growing consumer electronics market.
| |
WW IC
Revenue
($M) |
Fabless IC
Revenue
($M) |
% of Fabless IC Revenue to WW Semiconductor |
| 1994 |
$102,000 |
$3,601 |
3.5% |
| 1995 |
$141,794 |
$5,393 |
3.8% |
| 1996 |
$141,523 |
$6,943 |
5% |
| 1997 |
$146,383 |
$8,804 |
6% |
| 1998 |
$142,516 |
$9,787 |
7% |
| 1999 |
$173,403 |
$12,832 |
7% |
| 2000 |
$222,998 |
$17,834 |
8% |
| 2001 |
$153,452 |
$18,900 |
12.3% |
| 2002 |
$155,628 |
$20,802 |
13.4% |
| 2003 |
$177,512 |
$26,000 |
14.7% |
| 2004 |
$213,000 |
$33,205 |
15.6% |
| 2005 |
$227,500 |
$40,042 |
17.6% |
| 2006 |
$247,700 |
$49,489 |
20% |
| 2007 |
$267,500 |
$53,000 |
20% |
Source: GSA: Prior to 2007, other sources were used
| |
WW IC Growth
(%) |
Fabless IC Growth
(%) |
| 1999 |
19% |
31% |
| 2000 |
37% |
39% |
| 2001 |
-32% |
6% |
| 2002 |
1% |
10% |
| 2003 |
18% |
25% |
| 2004 |
28% |
29% |
| 2005 |
6% |
10% |
| 2006 |
9% |
24% |
| 2007 |
8% |
7% |
|
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